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The Development Trend Of Solar Silicon Industry: In 2018, The Market Share Of Single Crystal Will Exceed 40%.
- Apr 26, 2018 -

The development trend of solar silicon industry: in 2018, the market share of single crystal will exceed 40%.

China's silicon wafer industry has shuffled its cards in the last round of capacity-removal cycles. The current competitive landscape is basically stable and has a high degree of concentration. Of the top ten silicon wafer companies in the world, China has a total of 8 companies. Among them, polysilicon first-line companies mainly include GCL-Poly, LDK, Yujun, etc.; the first-line silicon wafer companies are mainly Longji, Zhonghuan, Comtec, Jinglong, and Sunny Energy.

Firstly. Future Investment Strategies for Solar Wafer Industry

1. Realize the integration of the industrial chain, improve the control of the industrial chain, and especially control the upstream production

Integrating the industrial chain is the direction of diversifying risk and maximizing value. It is also an important competitive method for large-scale photovoltaic companies worldwide. For wafer companies, entering the upstream polysilicon field can effectively avoid the adverse impact on profitability caused by the large fluctuations in the polysilicon spot market, and at the same time, they can tap opportunities for reducing costs between links and increase profitability.

The specific strategies for enhancing the control of the industrial chain include: Upward and downstream expansion through mergers and acquisitions, strategic alliances, etc.; increased wafer conversion efficiency and brand awareness to enable their products to win higher market premiums and obtain more market orders; multi-channel, multi-strategy Ensure the supply of polysilicon raw materials; Pass product innovation and business model and strengthen the market position of innovation; Sign product mutual purchase contract; Through the prepayment method, sign fixed-price, fixed-quantity long-term supply contracts with major suppliers at home and abroad; Establish sales price alliance Wait.

2. Pay attention to technological innovation, promote industrial technological breakthroughs, and accelerate the localization of equipment

The progress of photovoltaic technology is an important influencing factor for enterprises to realize industrial chain integration and reduce costs. The improvement of corporate competitiveness is ultimately attributed to technological progress and innovation. The key areas of technological innovation should focus on promoting the purification technology of crystalline silicon materials, improving the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells, developing new application technologies, reducing the energy consumption and pollutant emissions of the industrial chain, and accelerating the independent R&D of related process technologies and production equipment. Carry out product innovation, realize the multi-channel utilization of batteries and components, reduce the costs of various links in the industrial chain, and promote the wide application of photovoltaic power generation systems. In the process of promoting technological innovation, it is necessary to organize the integration of internal and external scientific research forces to carry out scientific and technological research and accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Take the road of partial introduction and self-determination, as foreign countries have imposed a blockade on the introduction of polysilicon production technology in China. The road to complete the introduction or cooperation with foreign countries to build a polysilicon production plant is impracticable, and it is still only necessary to take the road of domestic self-development or take the path of joint domestic development.

With the current cost of solar cells, the technology for silicon wafer preparation is rapidly progressing, with thinner and thinner wafers and lower costs. Therefore, investment in the preparation of polysilicon tablets should pay attention to the introduction of technology and digestion and absorption, do a good job of technology accumulation. In addition, it is possible to invest in equipment required for preparing polycrystalline silicon wafers such as polycrystalline silicon crystallization furnaces.

3. Focus on integrating global resources from R&D, management and marketing

(1) In the aspect of operation management, professional managers can be hired internationally, especially the marketing business (COO);

(2) In the aspect of R&D management, recruit domestic and foreign photovoltaic experts as chief technology officer and R&D center engineering and technical personnel;

(3) Multi-channel and multi-level cooperation with domestic and foreign PV production or marketing companies through mergers and acquisitions or strategic alliances or outsourcing.

4, take the domestic joint investment strategy

Some projects may consider domestic companies with existing technological advantages and foundations to build silicon wafer production plants. Newly built companies can capitalize on the advantages of capital, and companies with technological foundations and advantages can use technology to invest in shares and set up companies. Of course, it is also possible to purchase domestically through negotiation and integrate the foreign production technology that has already been purchased with domestic technology to achieve the advanced nature of production technology. Can use existing technology, can immediately be put into construction and production, does not require the integration of technology and systems; it can also avoid the cost of repeated purchases of foreign technology, reduce the cost of buying production technology, and less time and effort to negotiate, can Accelerate and shorten the construction cycle of production plants.

Secondly, Forecast of Development Trend of Solar Wafer Industry

1, technical forecast

In the single-crystal ingot technology, since the cost of the Czochralski method is lower and it is enough to meet the purity requirement of the photovoltaic cell, it is expected that a large proportion of the Czochralski method will still be used in the future. However, if single-crystal high-efficiency batteries gradually become mainstream in the future, the proportion of district melting methods will also increase.

In terms of slicing technology, the current mainstream is still Surry-based, and Diamond wire has gradually become popular because of its higher efficiency. The OFwee solar photovoltaic research team expects that the market share of diamond wire cutting will exceed that of mortar cutting around 2025.

China's major single-crystal wafer companies have completed the introduction of diamond wire cutting technology, and polysilicon film leader GCL-Poly has also begun to introduce diamond cutting technology. As a whole, the technical differences in the silicon wafer segment are not significant, and Chinese enterprises that win by volume can still occupy the top position in the world in the next few years.

2, application forecast

At present, the main obstacle for the use of diamond wire slices in the cutting of polycrystalline silicon wafers is that the polycrystalline silicon wafers cut with diamond wire have a higher reflectivity, and conventional polycrystalline texturing processes are difficult to achieve good results. The current mainstream technological path to address this deficiency is the adoption of black silicon technology in the cell segment. If the black silicon cell achieves mass production in a large range, the application of the diamond wire will again pull the cost difference between the bulk of the crystal and the single crystal at the silicon end.

With the promotion of diamond wire slicing + black silicon technology in the polycrystalline field, component prices will drop significantly on the basis of a cost reduction of 10%; this will drive down the overall system cost and accelerate the photovoltaic industry's next decade's “parity” The arrival of the "Internet" big cycle.

Third, solar wafer industry development prospects

1, solar wafer industry development drivers

The driving factors of solar wafer investment include: (1) Countries' solar photovoltaic support (subsidy) policies will certainly promote the rapid growth of global solar photovoltaic power generation, and provide a huge export consumer market for solar wafers in China; (2) Domestic policies Continuous improvement will boost the development of the photovoltaic industry. In the future, the domestic photovoltaic capacity will increase substantially, which will in turn stimulate the domestic consumption of solar wafers. (3) The supply of raw materials for the production of solar wafers will be sufficient and the prices will fall sharply; (4) Domestic silicon wafer production The gap in technology and technology has gradually narrowed, basically catching up with the international advanced level; (5) Cost advantages in key equipment (domesticization), technology, raw materials, and labor.

2. Solar wafer industry industrial structure forecast

At present, polycrystalline products account for a major share of the crystalline silicon market, but with the technological advancement of single-crystal products, the trend of single crystal substitution polycrystalline has been established, and its market share is expected to increase rapidly. The share of single-crystal modules in the domestic application market has rapidly increased from 5% in 2014 to around 15% in 2015. The customer value of single crystal has gradually been recognized by the industry. In 2016, the proportion of single crystals has exceeded 25%. Crystal industry chain is ushering in a rapid growth period, its market share is even more than 36%, OFwee solar photovoltaic research team expects, 2018 single crystal industry chain market share will reach 40-50%.

3, solar wafer industry market forecast

Single and polycrystalline solar energy products maintain a ratio of about 2:8 in the terminal market, mainly due to the high production costs of monocrystalline silicon wafers and batteries, and the market share in the past 10 years is often even below 20%, which is also insufficient. Surprisingly, the effective development of battery-end PERC technology in 2015 has increased the efficiency of single-crystal batteries. It has been well received in the end market and its development potential has been greatly appreciated. Therefore, in 2016 and 2017, PERC became the main driving force for the expansion of the solar energy industry chain. Entering mass production scale, it is expected that the production cost will be further explored.

Polycrystalline solar cells have encountered a bottleneck in efficiency, and even if polysilicon is viewed as a killer black silicon technology, it is expected to make great progress in terms of cost and efficiency. However, it seems that the maturity of mass production still remains. Not as expected, even major solar energy plant laboratories across the Strait are still actively engaged in R&D and small volume production. The related solar energy plant said that it is still not pessimistic in 2017 because all the companies are in full swing and have the opportunity to go into mass production.

Black silicon cells are considered to be the last wall of the current polycrystalline product to maintain territory. Polycrystalline silicon wafers can effectively reduce production costs through diamond cutting, while at the battery end, they are converted to dry or wet etching to increase efficiency and make black The cost performance of silicon batteries went a step further. However, the progress of development in 2016 was not as expected. If the performance of black silicon cannot exceed the status quo in 2017, I am afraid that Poly Crystal will reduce its original 80% to 60%, while single crystal will increase from 20% to 40%. Moreover, once single-crystal PERC batteries are brought into mass production scale and production costs are reduced again, it is feared that the official launch of single-crystal and multi-crystal generations will alternate because single crystals can create high-efficiency space above polycrystalline, becoming the mainstream of the market, and polycrystalline. In the future, there is no chance to stand up and the market share will probably be lost. As in the past, silicon film edged back to the marginal market with extremely low prices and gradually withdrew from the market. The biggest impact was on polysilicon wafer fabs because single and multiple silicon The wafer process is independent and cannot be converted.