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The Development Trend Of Solar Silicon Industry: In 2018, The Market Share Of Monocrystal Will Exceed 40%.
- May 09, 2018 -

The silicon industry in China has been fully shuffled in the last round of production cycle. The competition pattern is basically stable and the concentration is high. Among the ten enterprises in the world's silicon production, 8 are in our country. Among them, polycrystalline silicon film companies mainly include Baili Xixin, LDK LDK, Yu Jun, and so on. Single crystal silicon chips are mainly five enterprises of Longji stock, central share, Cam Danker, crystal dragon group and sunshine energy.

First, investment strategies for future solar silicon industry

1, realize the integration of industrial chain, enhance the control power of industrial chain, especially control upstream production.

The integration of industrial chain is the direction of risk diversification and value maximization. It is also an important means of competition for large global photovoltaic enterprises. For the silicon wafer enterprises, entering the upper polysilicon field can effectively avoid the adverse effects on the profit caused by the large fluctuation of the polysilicon spot market, and can also excavate the opportunity to reduce the cost between the links and improve the profitability.

The specific strategies to improve the control of the industrial chain include: expanding the upper and lower reaches through mergers and acquisitions and strategic alliances; improving the efficiency of the silicon wafer conversion and brand awareness to win the higher market premium for its products, obtaining more market orders, and ensuring the supply of polysilicon materials by multi-channel and multi strategy; through product innovation and business model And strengthen the position of innovation market; sign the contract of mutual purchase of products; sign the fixed price, fixed number of long-term supply contracts with the main suppliers at home and abroad, establish the sales price alliance, etc. through the prepayment method.

2, pay attention to technological innovation, promote industrial technological breakthroughs, and accelerate the localization of equipment.

The progress of photovoltaic technology is an important factor affecting the integration and cost reduction of enterprises. The promotion of enterprise competitiveness is ultimately attributed to technological progress and innovation. The key areas of technological innovation should be to promote the promotion of crystal silicon material purification technology and photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency technology, develop new application technology, reduce energy consumption and pollutant emission of industrial chain, accelerate the independent research and development of related technology and production equipment, carry out product innovation, realize battery and group. To reduce the cost of every link of the industrial chain and promote the wide application of photovoltaic power generation system. In the process of promoting technological innovation, we should organize and integrate internal and external research forces to tackle key problems in science and technology and speed up the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. Part of the introduction and independent development of the road, as a result of foreign imports of polysilicon technology in China has been blockaded. It is impossible to walk completely or cooperate with foreign countries to build a polysilicon production plant. It is still the only way to develop domestic independent development, or to take the road of joint development at home.

Driven by the cost of solar cells, silicon wafer technology has made rapid progress, silicon wafer is becoming thinner and cheaper. Therefore, the preparation of investment polysilicon wafers should pay attention to the introduction and digestion of technology and the accumulation of technology. In addition, the equipment needed to prepare polycrystalline silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon wafers can be invested.

3, focus on integrating global resources from three aspects of R & D, management and market.

(1) in terms of operation and management, professional managers can be hired internationally, especially the marketing operation (chief operating officer).

(2) in the field of R & D management, we recruit overseas and domestic photovoltaic experts as chief technology officer and R & D center engineering and technical personnel.

(3) through the merger and acquisition or strategic alliances or business outsourcing, and other related domestic and foreign photovoltaic power production or marketing enterprises to achieve multi-channel and multi-level cooperation.

4. Adopt domestic joint investment strategy

Some projects can consider building silicon wafer production plants with domestic enterprises with existing technological advantages and foundations. The newly established company can give full play to the advantages of capital, and the enterprises with technological foundation and advantages will join the company with technology and jointly establish the company. Of course, we can also buy domestic technology directly through negotiation, and integrate the foreign production technology and domestic technology that have been purchased to achieve the advanced production technology. It can make use of the present technology, immediately put into construction and production, without the integration of technology and system; it can also avoid the repeated purchase of foreign technology, reduce the cost of purchasing production technology, and spend less time and energy to negotiate, which can accelerate and shorten the construction cycle of the production plant.

Second. Forecast of the development trend of solar silicon wafer industry

1. Technology prediction

In the aspect of single crystal ingot technology, due to the lower cost of Czochralski method and sufficient demand for the purity of photovoltaic cells, it is expected that a large proportion of Czochralski method will still be used in the future. However, if the future single crystal high efficiency battery is becoming the mainstream gradually, the proportion of zone melting method will also increase.

In slicing technology, the mainstream is still mortar based, and Diamond wire is becoming more and more popular because of its more efficient advantages. OFwee solar photovoltaic research team predicts that by 2025, the market share of diamond wire cutting will exceed mortar cutting.

The main monocrystalline silicon chip enterprises in our country have completed the introduction of the diamond wire cutting technology, and the leading poly (poly silicon wafer) has begun to introduce diamond cutting technology. On the whole, there is little difference in the technical links of silicon chips. Chinese enterprises that win by volume can still occupy the forefront of the world in the next few years.

2. Forecast of industrial structure of solar silicon wafer industry

At present, polycrystalline products occupy the main share of crystal silicon market, but with the technological progress of single crystal products, the trend of single crystal substitutes for polycrystal has been established, and its market share is expected to be rapidly improved. The share of the single crystal components in the domestic market has been rapidly increased from 5% in 2014 to about 15% in 2015. The customer value of single crystal has been gradually recognized by the industry, and the ratio of single crystal is over 25% in 2016. In 2017, the single crystal industry chain is in a rapid growth period, and its market proportion is 36%, OFwee solar photovoltaic research group. The team expects that the market share of the single crystal industrial chain will reach 40 - 50% in 2018.

3, the prediction of the market prospect of solar silicon wafer industry

The proportion of single and polycrystalline solar energy products in the terminal market rate is about 2:8. The main reason is monocrystalline silicon wafer and the high production cost of battery. It is not surprising that in the past 10 years, it is not surprising. But in 2015, the PERC technology of battery terminal was developed effectively, the efficiency of single crystal electric pool was raised, and the terminal market was better. Evaluation, the development potential is greatly appreciated, so in 2016 and 2017, PERC became the main driving force of the solar industry chain expansion, and actively entered the scale of mass production, and the production cost could be further explored.

Polycrystalline solar cells have encountered bottlenecks in efficiency. Even if polycrystalline black silicon technology is regarded as the killer, it is expected to have great progress in cost and efficiency. However, it seems that the maturity of mass production is still less than expected, even though laboratories on both sides of the Taiwan Straits are still actively engaged in R & D and small production. Related solar energy plants said that 2017 is still not pessimistic, because every family is in full swing and has the opportunity to enter mass production.

The black silicon battery is regarded as the last city wall to maintain the territory of the present polycrystalline product. The polysilicon wafer can be effectively reduced by diamond cutting, while the battery end is converted to dry or wet etching to improve efficiency and make the performance price of the black silicon battery go further. However, the progress of the 2016 is not as good as expected. . If the performance of black silicon in 2017 can not break through the current situation, I'm afraid that polycrystalline city will be reduced from 8 to 6, while the single crystal will increase from 2 to 4. Moreover, once the single crystal PERC battery is moved into the mass production scale and the production cost is reduced again, I am afraid that the single and polycrystalline generations will be officially started, because the single crystal can create high efficiency space higher than the polycrystal. After being the mainstream of the market, the future of the polycrystalline will not turn over the opportunity, the market share is afraid to fall back like a passing silicon film edge. The marginal market, which has a poor price, is gradually withdrawn from the market, and the biggest impact is the polysilicon wafer plant, because the single and polysilicon wafer process is independent and cannot be converted.