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Photovoltaics Continue To Gain Momentum
- Apr 08, 2018 -

Photovoltaics reappear overcapacity

    The industry proposes to promote industrial upgrading by breaking through key PV equipment and technologies

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document requiring strict control over new photovoltaic manufacturing projects that simply increase production capacity. The “Economic Information Daily” reporter learned from the investigation that the domestic photovoltaic industry is now experiencing new overcapacity. According to the latest data from the China Photovoltaic Association, China has shown signs of overcapacity in the fields of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components. Industry sources said that to guard against overheating in the industry, we hope that the surplus around 2011 will not be repeated. At the same time, the development of photovoltaics needs to be solved urgently, such as digestion and upgrading. In the future, it is not appropriate to launch the domestic photovoltaic market through large-scale subsidies. It is necessary to accelerate the upgrading of photovoltaic power generation through the power grid, and accelerate the pace of breakthroughs in key PV equipment and technologies. , to promote industrial upgrading.

Photovoltaics continue to gain momentum

    The reporter learned that there has been a contradiction between the excess capacity of photovoltaics in recent years and the lack of market acquistion. According to the data from the State Grid Corporation of China, at present, some of the provinces (regions) in the “Three Norths” (northeast, north, and northwest regions) have already exceeded their planning goals for 2020. According to the latest data from the China Photovoltaic Association, China has shown signs of overcapacity in the fields of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components. In the whole year of 2017, the newly installed capacity was about 53 GW, a year-on-year increase of more than 53.6%, and the cumulative installed capacity was about 130 GW. In 2017, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China ranked first among renewable energy sources, reaching 53.06 million kW. As of the end of December 2017, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation nationwide has reached 130 million kilowatts. Looking at the global photovoltaic market, China's 53.6% growth rate has ranked first in the world for five consecutive years. Its cumulative installed capacity has also ranked first in the world for three consecutive years.

    According to the data, in 2017, China’s polysilicon production was 242,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%; wafer production was 87GW, an increase of 34.3% year-on-year; battery output was 68GW, an increase of 33.3% year-on-year; and module output was 76GW. Increased 31.7% year-on-year. The global share of the production scale of the photovoltaic industry chain exceeds 50%, and continues to be the first in the world.

     From the current point of view, the momentum of the rapid development of photovoltaics continues unabated, and China is setting off a new round of capacity expansion in the area of photovoltaic high-efficiency products. If Longji and Tianhe build a 5GW monocrystalline silicon rod project in Lijiang, Yunnan, Tongwei will build a high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery in Shuangliu with a total investment of 5 billion yuan. The national "leader" program still supports high-end photovoltaic products on a scale of 8-10 GW per year. All these have brought new pressure on the market.

On March 1st, the "Regulations for the Industry of PV Manufacturing Industry (2018 Edition)" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website requires strict control over new photovoltaic manufacturing projects that simply increase production capacity and guide photovoltaic companies to strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs. . Newly-built and expanded polysilicon manufacturing projects, with a minimum capital ratio of 30%, and other newly-built and expanded PV manufacturing projects with a minimum capital ratio of 20%.

Transport and grid load security challenges to be solved

     There is a contradiction between the surplus of western power resources and the lack of delivery capacity. The data show that in 2016, China's five provinces (districts) in Northwest China had a 19.91% abandonment rate. Photovoltaic power generation in Xinjiang and Gansu was more difficult to operate, and the abandonment rates were 32.23% and 30.45%, respectively. The National Energy Administration held a routine press conference at the beginning of this year. In 2017, the amount of abandoned photovoltaics was 7.3 billion kWh, and the rate of abandoned light was 6%, which was a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the same period of last year. “Although it has improved, the goal of abandoning the abandonment of abandoned wind within 5% in 2020 is facing great challenges,” said an industry source on the State Grid.

      A management person of a photovoltaic listed company stated that large-scale ground power stations are mainly built in the northwestern region, where local capacity is limited, and long-distance transmission and distribution facilities are not well-developed, resulting in electricity supply and demand within the light-rich regions and inland in the northwest. Imbalance with the southeast coast. An administrative manager of a photovoltaic listed company base located in Taicang, Jiangsu Province, said that the amount of funds accumulated by the power station has not been accumulated to reach several billion yuan. If you can't get on the Internet, you can't get a loan. Banks need to collect loans. They can't help financing through market institutions. The interest rate is 12% to 15%.

     There are also contradictions between the instability of new energy power generation and grid load safety. Sometimes there is no sunlight, and new energy sources can easily cause voltage instability. From January to the end of December 2017, the newly installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics nationwide exceeded 19GW, which was more than 360% year-on-year, far exceeding the total installed capacity of distributed PV in the previous five years, and accounted for more than 36% of new installed capacity. The massive influx of distributed power will undoubtedly increase the load on the power grid. In particular, the country can use local distribution for distribution, and can apply at any time for on-grid connection. Without a good plan, there is no doubt that it has increased its area. The difficulty of load forecasting has changed the existing load growth model, which obviously will make the transformation and management of distribution networks more complicated.

     A person in charge of a provincial branch of the State Grid said that although the construction of UHV power grids has provided a permanent solution to the “three abandonment” problem, clean energy is random and intermittent and poses severe challenges to the operation of the power grid. The operation of high-volume photovoltaic power generation after intervention in the power grid is more difficult. In particular, after a large number of distributed power projects are connected to the power distribution network, the power distribution network is changed from a single-end power source to a multi-stage power source. It is difficult to achieve real-time monitoring due to the limitations of current equipment and technology. Safe dispatching can easily lead to grid safety and personal safety accidents.

It is difficult to equip high-end equipment

     According to a person from the State Grid and photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic development is faced with the dual problems of dissipation and upgrading. For example, the scale of new energy development and the flexibility of coal-fired power plants are difficult to transform, energy storage, transmission, and forecasting capabilities are difficult to break through, and the grid is matched with new energy high-speed. Development is difficult and the photovoltaic industry itself is difficult to break through to high-end equipment.

     First, it is difficult to control the scale of new energy development and the flexibility of coal power. According to the relevant person in charge of the State Grid Corporation of China, China's electricity market construction is still in its infancy, and it is a great challenge to build a national unified electricity market in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period. From the production side, it is difficult to control the scale of new energy development within the national planning goals, and the scale and progress of coal-fired power plant flexibility reform is difficult to achieve. The progress in northwest and north China is slow. From the consumer side, the effectiveness of the green governance system that encourages the use of new energy sources has not yet emerged.

     With the large-scale grid-connected new energy sources, the number of frequent peaking/starting and peak frequency and depth of conventional thermal power units have increased. At present, the cost of starting and stopping a single 600,000 kilowatt thermal power unit is nearly 1 million yuan. Wang Zhicheng, deputy director of the Regulation and Planning Department of Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd., said that in practice, there is still a lack of a complete compensation mechanism for new energy peaking auxiliary services, and conventional thermal power generators lack the willingness to adjust peaks.

     Second, energy storage, transportation, and forecasting capabilities are difficult to break through. Yao Jun, deputy general manager of State Grid Taizhou Power Supply Co., Ltd., said that after investigating the energy storage technology of more than a dozen market players, it was found that due to the large investment in the previous period, the commercial operation mainly depends on the peak-to-valley spread, the internal rate of return is low, the recovery cycle is long, and the operation is not Cost-effective.


     Wang Zhicheng said that in August 2017, the State Grid passed the northwest to the southwest, and then to Shaoxing, Zhejiang, to transmit light and electricity to Jiangsu. However, this channel is mainly used for the transportation of hydropower in the west, and is basically occupied in the wet season. The western region also lacks the ability to predict the generation of new energy. The eastern region is often caught off guard, and the mismatch between the sending and receiving end curves is serious. In addition, trans-provincial power transmission also occupies power generation space in the receiving end of the province. If there is no advantage in price, it is difficult to digest it on a large scale.

     Third, the rapid development of the grid to match new energy is difficult. According to the relevant person in charge of the State Grid Corporation of China, some key grid projects involving the security of the grid and the absorption of new energy sources have not yet been clearly defined. If they cannot be completed and put into operation in 2019, some UHV DC projects will not be able to operate at full power.


     He Xinyu, deputy general manager of the Guoyang County Power Supply Company, said that currently there are a large number of photovoltaic and wind power projects, and they belong to different construction owners. The local government level lacks a unified overall layout plan and schedule coordination, and some use the PV poverty relief policy to build villages. Grade and household photovoltaic power stations have a short construction period, which poses great difficulties for the construction of supporting power grid projects.

      Fourthly, the bottleneck in the photovoltaic industry's progress toward high-end is still a challenge, and it is difficult to go high-end. According to a photovoltaic industry veteran, a total of more than 80% of the equipment in the entire solar cell production line has achieved localization. China's solar photovoltaic equipment has achieved rapid development, but compared with the international advanced level, we have made There is still a big gap between some high-end key equipment in the production of solar photovoltaic cells and the international advanced level. At present, localization of some high-end and key equipment has not yet achieved substantial breakthroughs and it still relies on imports.


     High-end equipment imports push up costs, which will, to a certain extent, restrict the growth of the industry. Among the wafer processing equipment, some have high-grade automatic single crystal furnaces of international advanced level. However, due to the high price, the number of applications in the photovoltaic industry is limited, and a large number of applications are obtained, but the low price is applicable and the degree of automation is low. Low-end single crystal furnace. The high-end automation products of the international advanced level have obvious technical features, such as laminators in component production equipment, but they also occupy the majority of the market share in low-end products.


      According to a PV business executive, there are currently some shortcomings in China's PV equipment industry, lack of independent innovation capabilities, and less independent intellectual property rights. The gap between the R&D capability of enterprises and foreign countries is relatively large, the lack of professional and technical personnel for high-end equipment, and the lack of technical strength have led to insufficient prospectiveness and depth and do not possess core competitiveness. The design and manufacture of equipment is out of line. Most equipment manufacturers only pay attention to equipment manufacturing and manufacture, and they neglect to communicate and communicate with equipment use units, and cannot provide products that are most suitable for production needs.

----Xiamen Lynsa Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd.