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Photovoltaic Industry: The Next Round Of International Political Reshuffle
- May 10, 2018 -

The "competition" of photovoltaic industry in various countries has begun, and the pace is gradually accelerating. After the "solar technology" has become a new "black gold", will the tragedy of the two economic crisis in the oil age repeat itself?

In today's oil has not yet been completely replaced, natural gas as a new energy strong rise, in contrast, just how can the emerging photovoltaic industry get the attention and favor of the state?

We can easily find that oil production efficiency is closely related to economy and even politics. Whether it was the Great Depression of 1929 - nineteen thirty - three or the financial crisis of 2008 - the percentage of high - income groups in society was at a higher level when these unrest occurred.

Nowadays, the purity of oil has decreased and output has declined. Several major oil fields in the world are facing exhaustion, and the global climate problem is becoming more and more serious. Looking for alternative clean energy is not only a way to pave the way for the post oil era, but this "new energy" is just like oil, not just energy, but also an important factor in human economic and social change.

Many clean alternative energy sources have been developed around the world, but why only the photovoltaic industry has caused the attention of all the governments around the world.

"The place of war"

Solar energy has three unparalleled advantages over other energy sources. One is stability and sustainability. Secondly, it is the portability of solar cells. The portability of solar cells is not only intuitively reflected in the convenience of civilian use, but also in the construction of distributed energy and energy Internet.



The so-called "distributed energy" is relative to the power plant type of centralized power generation. This model dispersing power generation points to communities, schools, enterprises, hospitals, and so on. Because of dispersion, the power output of each system can not be particularly large. It can be determined according to the demand of the user, and can achieve cold and heat co generation at the same time. So the "fragmented" power supply mode can not rely on any entity type energy media, and the sun is illuminating the earth, thus making the solar energy also like the shadow.

On the other hand, the concept of "energy Internet" is based on the "distributed energy". It combines the distributed energy point into the same network through electronic information technology, on the basis of bi-directional measurement, as if the physical "connector" generally provides the right amount of electricity for each demand point. When the distribution point of the access network is changed, the energy Internet can also play a rapid and coordinated role. Once the original "power supply" power generation point is accidentally cut off, it can be coordinated by the energy Internet to get the surplus power of other power generation points, and realize a transition from "send" to "connection".

It can be said that the combination of distributed energy and energy Internet, which can be realized only by solar power, will realize the step utilization and energy intelligentization of energy in the real sense, reduce the waste of energy, improve the utilization of the whole system and reduce the pollution of the environment.

And this remarkable advantage has also given rise to third reasons for all countries to argue for the photovoltaic industry -- strong military and political potential.

We can boldly guess that as the geographic location of the photovoltaic power is almost unrestricted, the remote areas, which are difficult to reach, are likely to be unworthy of the realization of the photovoltaic vehicles, and the supply of food and water is also likely to become possible because of the arrival of "photovoltaic power". Take. In this way, the "unmanned area" such as the Sahel region is likely to disappear, and the human footprint will be further expanded on the earth while a large number of poverty-stricken areas are developed. Soon, the advanced technology of solar energy that does not rely on solid energy will also be widely applied to the military field. The "proxy war" between the big powers is likely to be re - staged for the less developed areas that have begun to develop because of the application of solar power technology, especially in areas where the political situation is not stable. And this war is different from any one in the past.

In March 2003, the United States launched the war in Iraq. For China, Far East Asia, the war in Iraq seems to be a long way to go, but it is a preliminary test of China's energy security. In the short term, the outbreak of the Iraq war has led to a steady rise in the international oil price. For China, which has not yet built a strategic reserve of the system of petroleum, the short-term surge in international oil prices will pose a serious test to our country. In the long run, after the Iraq war, the impact and control of the United States on the Middle East oil will become increasingly comprehensive, and it poses a great strategic threat to the neighbouring countries of Iraq and to the important oil collection of our country, Iran. If the Iraq war is good for the United States, the oil security of our country will be further under the influence and control of the United States for a long time. Once the relationship between China and the United States deteriorates, the United States is completely likely to hold our country through the influence and control of the international oil price.

In the context of the global benefits of photovoltaic industry, the above situation will no longer be possible.

The universality of solar energy makes "energy" no longer a "controlled" thing that anyone can touch and easily get - but it is another thing to be able to convert it into the energy that can be put into production. When the acquisition of energy is no longer a threshold, the technology to transform and use it becomes the key to safeguarding national energy security.

It can be said that in the "photovoltaic age", the competition between countries will no longer be who can get more solar energy, but who can use the "one hand" energy more efficiently - the technology people get the world.

This involves a problem of conversion.

According to media reports, the single junction gallium arsenide GaAs thin film solar module prepared by the Alta Devices of the Han energy group was certified by the international authority, and its photoelectric conversion rate reached 25.1%, creating the latest world record. In addition, the conversion rates of the flexible copper indium gallium selenium (CIGS) thin film components made by the two subsidiaries were 18.7% and 17.88% respectively, which were the highest in the world at the present time, and the record was only 15 years later.

It can be said that the "competition" of photovoltaic industry in various countries has begun, and the pace is gradually accelerating. Also 15 years ago, China's photovoltaic industry, with its cost advantage and capital advantage, quickly entered the international market. At the same time in the world, the Chinese photovoltaic industry was quickly met from the "double counter" from Europe and the United States, once in the "winter of the photovoltaic industry". On the one hand, we can say that European and American countries have also realized the importance of vigorously supporting their own photovoltaic industry in the economic downturn; on the other hand, we should also understand that the so-called "predominance" in the international competition of the photovoltaic industry is not so strong.

We must face the fact that solar photovoltaic technology still needs to further overcome the low efficiency of photoelectric conversion and high cost of material, and the United States is far ahead of our country in the application of solar energy products. This led to China's passive participation in this "photovoltaic competition". But even so, this does not change the fact that mankind will eventually enter the "photovoltaic era". The "photovoltaic competition" has obviously started. Even if we have a long distance from the end of the total solar photovoltaic power generation, many countries are obviously aware of the "trend" and start to push me and push.

In March 22, 2018, the Trump administration opened the first shot of the Sino US trade war, preparing to impose a tariff of 25% on China's exports to the United States, which is close to 60 billion, including a large number of high-tech products. After that, the Chinese government responded quickly, which was issued at about 7 hours early in March 23rd, "a list of discontinued products for the 232 measures for the import of steel and aluminum products in the United States", which is to be imposed on a tariff of about $3 billion from US imports. These 3 billion responses can only be counted as "revenge" by the Chinese side for the last "double opposition".

The opening of the trade war is not only a change in the attitude of the US side to the global trade after Trump came to power, but also marks a serious threat to the US side in the rapid rise of the "high-tech field", of which the photovoltaic field can not be exempting from vulgarity.

"Or it's going to cause a new problem."

With the development of science and technology and the approaching of the new energy era, we must realize that new threats are also emerging. The concern and concern about data security has given birth to the concept of "block chain", but the "energy security" in the new era has not yet attracted people's attention.

When World War I began, people held coal and electricity, and when the war ended, they grasped oil; at the beginning of the Second World War, people held oil and internal-combustion engines, and the end of the war was nuclear energy.

Here, the author only stated a fact that in the evolution of the energy history, there must be a lot of war and the grief of countless souls. From coal to oil, from oil to nuclear energy - even if Hiroshima's mushroom cloud remains in film, even when the ruins of Chernobyl are still being banned, the risk hidden behind energy does not prevent human use from being used.

Indeed, I mentioned in the previous article the advantages of solar photovoltaic power, but this does not mean that the "photovoltaic age" can really let people relax. The hidden threats mainly come from two aspects: human factors and force majeure.

The so-called "human factor" mainly refers to the attack from the external energy network. We do not dare to say that the arrival of the new energy era will be the opportunity for the next large-scale global war, but it is certain that if there is a war at that time, it must not be in the same way as it is today. From long-range missile interceptors to UAVs, the military confrontation between countries is becoming increasingly "remote". For various reasons, the military is more inclined to "win over thousands of miles away," rather than "fight to the point".

In this trend, to predict future situations, we need to take into account the cutting-edge technology that comes with the "photovoltaic age" - big data, artificial intelligence, block chain technology, pilotless... There is reason to believe that the war in the future will no longer be a soldier to pick up a gun in a battle, or to hit a frightening explosion on the top of the Pacific by a missile between country and country. The energy Internet has been paralyzed, thus completely hindering the daily social activities and the economic development of the country.

The cost of launching an attack on people's energy security will become unprecedented, without any bomb or military facilities, only to move the finger, and the disaster at the other end of the network will become a reality. Such a possibility is undoubtedly a new challenge to the world by the progress of science and technology - not only between countries but also between terrorism and the peaceful world.

On the other hand, it is like the "plot" in the oil age. Today, the cost of photovoltaic power is still high, from oil to natural gas transition, the energy structure from natural gas to solar energy structure optimization and upgrading is not the power of the evening. It can be said that the final abandonment of oil as the main source of energy is absolutely not because the world's oil is depleted, but the use of oil for energy conversion is much less than the cost of the development process. Similarly, the arrival of the "photovoltaic era" can not be achieved overnight. It is bound to pass through a period of time "natural gas and solar energy parallel" dual energy process, in which the conversion rate of natural gas energy and price ratio gradually decrease, parallel to the increasing conversion rate and cost performance of photovoltaic technology, and the problem is to realize the "new energy" and the economic situation after the smooth transition. The contradiction between the two.

After the "solar technology" has become a new "black gold", will the tragedy of the two economic crisis in the oil age repeat itself?