Home > News > Content
In 2020, The On-grid Electricity Price Will Be Equal To The Electricity Grid Sales Price
- Dec 04, 2017 -

In 2020, the on-grid electricity price will be equal to the electricity grid sales price

"Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Price Mechanism in an All-Round Way" Mentioned that PV should achieve parity in 2020. On November 8, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated the Opinions on Reforming the Price Mechanism in an All-round Way (Development and Reform Price [2017] No. 1941), hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions," and Article 10 of the document explicitly states that " Photovoltaic grid electricity price and electricity sales price quite.

Qualitatively speaking, the attributes of eco-environmental protection and the system of subsidies and downslope are two key points. (1) The "Opinions" classify the statements on the on-grid electricity price of PV into "five, innovating and perfecting the eco-friendly pricing mechanism", indicating that PV has not only the properties of electricity (energy) and more important eco-friendly properties; (2) The original opinion of the Opinion states that "the implementation of the solar energy benchmarking fee refund mechanism for solar energy benchmarking according to technological progress and market supply and demand, and the realization of photovoltaic grid tariff by 2020 will be comparable to the electricity grid sales price." This is more than the "Thirteenth Five-year Plan for Solar Energy In 2020, the price of photovoltaic power generation will drop by more than 50% on the basis of 2015, and achieve the target of parity in electricity consumption by the power-using side) and the "Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)" (by 2020, PV installed capacity will reach 100 million Kilowatt, photovoltaic power generation and grid sales price quite) to further clarify the parity of the way, that is, the implementation of subsidies to the downslope system, we speculate may refer to the beginning of next year to enforce the "green card + quotas."

From a quantitative point of view, the PV electricity price has basically achieved parity on the user side. In 2020, it is also possible to achieve parity power generation on the power generation side. China's residential electricity, industrial and commercial electricity, the average electricity price of large industrial electricity is about 0.51,0.75,0.55 yuan / kWh. The benchmark electricity prices of three types of resource areas in China were 0.65,0.75,0.85 yuan / kWh, which shows that the photovoltaic power price has been basically parity parity. On the Internet side, the current subsidy intensity (benchmark electricity price - local benchmark coal price) is 0.33-0.52 yuan / kWh, an average of 0.26 yuan / kWh higher than wind power. As the entire industry continues to reduce cost and increase efficiency, as well as non-photovoltaic costs continue to decline, the Internet side parity is expected to be achieved by 2020-2022.

After parity, photovoltaic will usher in a new inflection point. After the realization of parity in 2020, the photovoltaic industry will usher in a new inflection point, mainly from the two dimensions of demand and supply: (1) Demand level, statistics show that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is maintained at about 6-8% At the same time, the state stepped up the exit of coal power capacity (the installed capacity of coal power will strive to be controlled at less than 1.1 billion kilowatts by 2020, 1.08 billion kilowatt hours by 2017Q3 and strive to shut down 20 million kilowatts during the 13th five-year period). On the one hand, Of the gap will be covered by new energy sources such as PV that do not need subsidies. On the other hand, administrations will not consider the size limitation of renewable energy subsidy funds when formulating their PV installation plans; (2) Supply-side, core investment in PV projects Force is the IRR, due to the lack of parity, the PV project subsidies arrears will lead to a substantial reduction in the actual IRR, while causing the project's cash flow is tight, once the arrival of parity, IRR will return to the theoretical value, investment enthusiasm will be rekindled.