How does the 2018 PV market change after the price reduction?
According to a view of a photovoltaic industry veteran, the past 2017, for the industry, is a rare year of smooth, many manufacturers live well. But the unexpected boots should fall off. In December 19th, the electricity price reduction document, which was already expected by the industry, was always seen.
The price of the benchmarking of the PV power station after January 1, 2018 is adjusted to 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan and 0.75 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt hour, respectively. The distributed photovoltaic power generation project with "spontaneous self use and surplus surfing" model reduces the standard of total electricity allowance by 0.05 yuan, that is, the subsidy standard is adjusted to 0.37 yuan per kilowatt hour (including tax).
The price reduction, compared with some previous news, is not the worst result for the industry.
What is the impact of the price cut on the market? How will the pattern of products and services change? Who will be more squeezed, who will seize the opportunity? This round of 1230 is over. What about the next 630?
Who is the main cost of reducing the cost?
In the recent 2017 China photovoltaic industry annual meeting, the industry leaders said that according to his calculation, the price of electricity decreased by 1 cents each, and the EPC cost of photovoltaic project should be reduced by 8 cents to ensure reasonable profit. Another big guy's argument is that the cost of EPC will be reduced by 7 cents.
In fact, cost is a comprehensive concept, nor is it fully controlled by the industry itself. The principle of the Renewable Energy Society of China has repeatedly mentioned in a public statement that the cost of non technology is still an obstacle to the further reduction of the cost of photovoltaic projects. For example, the cost of land and financing is high.
The chairman of a central enterprise solar energy company also Tucao said that the high land tax and fees of some projects have eaten up the meager profits of the power station.
However, these factors are basically external force majeure and can be written separately.
The outside world can't be managed. Whether it is 7 cents or 8 cents, it is also related to the size and life span. In the final analysis, whether the project yield can be counted or not.
As we all know, component cost occupies the highest proportion in the total cost of the system. How many components can be reduced has become a concern for many people.
The head of the market department of a front line component manufacturer believes that this should be understood from two aspects. On the one hand, the requirements of the national policy level must be on the Internet at a fair price, and the price of PV will definitely drop. Eventually, we should throw away the subsidy of this crutches. This is the general trend. The purpose of improving efficiency is to reduce the cost of electricity. More electricity can also save land, materials, inverters, bus boxes and other costs.
He stressed that for the photovoltaic industry, it should not be said that the component price reduction, but should be the industry price reduction. "Although last year's corporate earnings were acceptable, the profit margin this year is 2%, and some component companies may even lose money. The gross profit margin of other links is more than 30 per cent and more than 40 per cent, which should be more compressed. This should be the main reason for the fall in cost this year. "
In fact, his component enterprise is expanding production, "Silicon and batteries are expanding, because the components are expanded." the previous silicon production capacity was disjointed with the components and batteries, so 2017 was planned and prepared, and the capacity would be released in 2018.
He believes that expanding production is also a way to reduce costs on the whole. "It must be expanded. Silicon chips, batteries and components are basically in short supply. The increased capacity is for some customers who have not been able to get our products before. Many customers can't afford to go to other manufacturers because we can't afford them.
In order to reduce the cost, Lu Chuan, President of Zhejiang CHINT New Energy Development Co., Ltd., said that the price decline was still under pressure in 2018. "The rate of return may give way to 0.5 points, almost 4 cents difference, and the remaining 4 needs to be reduced by the installers and developers."
Does the mainstream product change?
With regard to the change of market share of PV products after the electricity price adjustment, a certain line of component manufacturers insiders said that the polycrystalline aspect would be relatively stable. For example, the polycrystalline component used before is 270, and in the second half of the year, it may fail to yield 8% of the yield requirement. Polycrystalline components at present 275 more than 280, not much, may need to do some improvement, to use the black silicon + PERC technology, but the transformation needs time, in the short term will not be too much.
These people believe that the mainstream products of polycrystalline in 2018 will not change much. "We all want to improve the efficiency of polycrystalline, but the efficiency of polycrystal application technology is not single crystal high, so we will give priority to the single crystal. In addition, equipment investment, including technology input and R & D, has continuity. Last year and the year before, we studied more single crystals.
He thinks that now the focus is on single crystal. There are some new technologies that are better, such as double double glass. It is done with PERC technology, the front can be 300 or 305, and the reverse side has nearly 75% power, which can increase the power generation by 8% to 14%.
"If we can increase such a high volume of electricity, the overall price will go down, and the speed will be very fast. In May last year, the price was 3 yuan, 5-3 yuan and 6, and now it basically fell to 3 yuan - 1 yuan. With the PERC battery price cut, the price will go further down, so we can figure it out. He thinks, plus half and superimposition and other technologies, it should be very effective. "If we don't do this, after the second half of the second half of the year, people will not be able to invest, and the market demand falls down."
According to the above, the demand for single crystals will increase further in 2018.
How do the market of the components go?
There is a significant reduction in the price reduction of recent mainstream single crystal manufacturers. The analysis of the component manufacturer is mainly because it is now a single crystal, because many projects were designed last year, and the designs are all polycrystalline, because the prices of polycrystals were low last year, basically at about 2.8 yuan to 2. 9 yuan, and single crystal. The price of the efficient PERC module is basically 3.4 yuan, with a price difference of nearly 5 cents, and the customers are certainly willing to use polycrystals. So in the near time, the demand for single crystal is less.
"The previous design can not be changed. If we change it, a lot of changes should be made, including budget and cost accounting. It also involves many places, especially the projects of poverty alleviation. Once the project is reported, it can not be changed, so there is no way to go on. He said frankly, the price reduction of single crystal products is temporary.
As for the trend of single crystal products in 2018, these people admit that they are also discussing internally. He personally believes that the market share of conventional single crystals will be less and less, "280, 285, 290 component share is slowly lost, efficient 300, 305, 310 components, or double-sided 300, 310 component market share will become more and more large, and even completely replace the conventional single crystal."
The world's largest single crystal silicon photovoltaic product manufacturer, Wang Ying song, the chairman and director of the market, also said in the annual meeting of the 2017 China photovoltaic industry that the industrialization will continue in 2018 and the efficiency will be 22%. In the second half of 2018, we hope to eliminate below 300 watts.
In terms of the time dimension, the component manufacturer believes that the price of single crystal components in the first quarter of 2018 should go down a bit, on the one hand because it belongs to the traditional off-season, combined with less start and less demand before and after the Spring Festival. In addition, it will also involve dual opposition in India. "Double reverse" is basically going to come out at the end of February and early March. Before we get the result, everyone will rush to install it, and the result will not be robbed, and the market will be gone. Many products will be transferred to China, and domestic demand will exceed supply. "
In the second quarter of 2018, he thought component prices would go up, as many customers wanted to buy products, "we think 630 may be a bit more violent this year than in previous years."
Will the market choose less?
In the recent photovoltaic industry conference, many industry leaders said that the future will be the stronger the stronger, the weaker the weaker era.
A line of component enterprises also said that the share of small and medium enterprises will become smaller and smaller in the future. "Before and after 2016, a lot of people think that the days of small factories are also very moist, in fact, mainly because the short supply of the market short supply, large factory orders are full, do not come, find some factories to do agent." He believes that this is a short-lived prosperity, with the expansion of front-line manufacturers in place, the market space for SMEs will be compressed.
There are also inverter leading enterprises, the market is hot, customers value brand, service and comprehensive strength, their advantages are more obvious.
But many second line enterprises in the industry don't think so
"We have been running for three years on the distributed track, and we have to start a new track," said Ouyang Jiagan, the general manager of the Guangzhou three crystal electric Limited by Share Ltd, an unpopular Inverter Manufacturer in recent years, saying that in 2017, the three crystals had done one thing, the home photovoltaic. "Size is not what leads everything, value is the thing that leads everything, our value must be unique to compete with large enterprises," he stressed that the investment in the home photovoltaic system is strategic.
He confessed that although the size of the three crystal electricity is not as good as the other two business enterprises, it has doubled in the past and will still double in the future, because it has been recognized by the market at the value level. It is intended to be a platform service provider for data-based energy management, as well as a traditional control section, which belongs to the energy management link. It is hoped that the new energy generation, storage and use of electricity are closed by the digital platform, based on the closed loop of civil and industrial and commercial buildings.
Ouyang Jiagan stressed that spontaneous self use is the trend of the times, and the three crystal electrical product line is basically self use, in addition, the age of energy storage will come, digital energy management is bound to be hair, storage, consumption, for one.
He also believes that the competition in the field of home photovoltaic will be fierce in 2018. "Small factories may go a little bit more tired", a line component business people summed up.
As long as the market dividends have not subsided, the big fish and small fish in the industry will have their own niche.
One line component enterprise said that the market will be bigger and bigger, and there is a consensus within the company, but there is no final determination of how much the market will be done in 2018, the 100 thousand sets, the 200 thousand sets or the 500 thousand sets.
Zhejiang CHINT New Energy Development Co., Ltd. President Lu Chuan's goal is very clear, CHINT new energy in 2018 household target is to do 200 thousand sets, "according to the standard power conversion, 200 thousand for the target, is the installation of more than 600 megawatts."
For investors, after the price reduction, the senior people in the industry have sent a few words: to strengthen the planning of the site, optimize the system design, improve the efficiency of the system, at the same time to improve the quality of construction, and strengthen the management of operation and maintenance of power stations.
That is to say, from the planning design, product selection to construction operation and maintenance, this series of things must be meticulous, and careless is definitely not enough.The photovoltaic industry has also arrived at the time to bid farewell to extensive development.
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