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High Efficiency Batteries Will Become New Engines
- Aug 15, 2018 -

The first thing to bear is the PERC market, which is currently in the market. At the end of 2017, single-crystal silicon wafer capacity will exceed 444W, 2018 is expected to exceed 60GW; polycrystalline silicon wafer capacity at the end of 2017 will exceed 90GW, 2018 is expected to increase to 110GW, polycrystalline ratio continues to decline. Longji silicon wafer production capacity will reach 25GW by the end of 2018, Central will reach 23GW, showing a double giant situation. Downstream silicon wafers, industry leaders have launched high-efficiency battery / module expansion plans, single crystal battery expansion to single crystal PERC-based.

At the end of 2017, the global production capacity of single crystal PERC batteries will exceed 30GW. According to the existing expansion plan, it is estimated that it will reach 60GW by the end of 2018. Upstream capacity follow-up will further promote the price reduction of single crystal silicon wafer and high efficiency components, and the economic benefits of using high efficiency components will be more obvious.

At present, the production line efficiency of single crystal PERC batteries is generally 21-21.5%, and the polycrystalline is about 20-20.5%. The highest conversion efficiencies of industrial large area single crystal PERC and polycrystalline PERC batteries reach 22.6% and 21.63% respectively. PERC batteries still have a lot of room to improve efficiency, emitter, aluminum back field, main grid, silicon quality and other optimization space. It is expected that the conversion efficiency of single crystal PERC batteries will be as high as 24% by 2025, and the market share will be further improved. With the development of technology, the maturity of double-sided PERC technology can not only broaden the application of PERC batteries, but also obtain higher power generation gain.

From the cost point of view, compared with PERC single-sided products, PERC double-sided products only in the battery screen printing process has been adjusted and optimized, so the cost is basically the same as PERC single-sided products. Compared with conventional single/polycrystalline and PERC single crystal, the P-type PERC double-sided module can effectively reduce the LCOE of photovoltaic power plants. For example, the double-sided module with 10% power generation gain can reduce the LCOE by more than 0.05 yuan/kWh, so the double-sided product can accelerate the promotion of photovoltaic power generation on the grid at a fair price. It is expected that in the next two to three years, PERC technology should be very difficult to be impacted by other efficient technologies, especially double-sided PERC products, after about a year of application-side verification, the second half of 2018 will enter the market on a large scale.

Secondly, it is expected that the next generation of HIT batteries will take the lead. In 2017, domestic HIT batteries have formed a capacity of 1GW, but the output is limited, only 60MW, and the average conversion efficiency is 22.7%. It is expected that 2018 will usher in the first year of heterojunction development. The planned capacity will be 2.5GW in 2018, and the total capacity will reach 3.5GW.