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Forecast Analysis Of Solar Energy Market In China: 2018 May Contraction
- Jul 04, 2018 -


This year's global solar market is likely to experience something that has never happened before: contraction. According to the most conservative scenario simulated by Bloomberg new energy finance in Monday's report, the total amount of solar energy devices in 2018 could reach 95 GW, down 3% from the same period last year.


This potential decline has proved the impact of China's solar demand in the global market. The country decided in June of this year to restrict new installations this year. This could lead to oversupply of global panels and reduce the price to 24.4 cents per kilowatt by the end of this year. In turn, cheaper panels may trigger more demand, and Bloomberg estimates that the market will rebound next year.


BNEF analyst Pietro Radoia said that despite a policy reversal in China, it seems that the global solar market will eventually usher in another year of growth, although it is just a very slight increase. "The new report forecasts that China's global relevance will decline. By 2020, it will account for only 1/4 of the global demand, less than half of the 2017."


Although the most conservative BNEF model points out that this year's devices may fall, the basic forecast suggests that the global new solar facilities may remain basically the same. The most optimistic forecast shows a new 104.3 GIS.


This year, one of the highlights of solar energy is Japan. The government continues to offer tariff subsidy policy to the projects under 2 megawatts. However, developers may need some time to protect sites and approvals to connect to the grid.